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Fantasy Baseball Strategy Tips
Before your draft/auction
- Don’t let your player rankings be influenced by “experts” who dismiss veteran players coming off a career year (e.g. – Brett Myers, Jose Bautista) with a remark along the lines of “this player is overvalued this year – you can’t expect him to repeat what he did last year!” As long as you are projecting statistics for the player that fall somewhere between those of his career year and those of his previous career norms, you’ll probably be just fine.
- Conversely, do not assume that a young player coming off a breakout season (e.g. – Joey Votto) will continue to improve. It could happen, but again, you are better off projecting statistics for that player that fall somewhere between those of his breakout year and those of his previous career norms.
- Know your league’s scoring categories! For instance, if your league uses On-Base Percentage (OBP) instead of Batting Average (AVG), don’t rely on a set of player rankings that includes AVG! Players like Prince Fielder and Adam Dunn are much more valuable in a league that uses OBP than they are in a league that uses AVG!
- Use player projections and rankings that are customized to your league’s characteristics (e.g. – eligible players, roster requirements, scoring categories) and reflect Position Scarcity. The Position Scarcity adjustment should reflect both the number of players your league requires at each position (versus the available supply) and the drop-off in player values between tiers at each position.
- If your league allows Keepers, give preference to players at positions with relatively little depth.
- If you are participating in an auction, prepare a budget ahead of time. Tier players both by position and the amount of money you’re willing to spend for them. Develop several sample rosters ahead of time so that you can anticipate alternatives should your auction take an unexpected turn (and it always will)!
During your draft/auction
- Track all teams’ remaining roster needs by position. If you are participating in an auction, also track how much money each team has remaining.
- During an auction compare each player’s actual price to your predicted price for that player. Keep track of the cumulative overspending or underspending for the auction, by team if possible. Your goal is to purchase the majority of your players at points in the auction when other teams have previously overspent on cumulative basis – this will mean less competition for your targeted players. Generally, this condition will exist during the middle stages of an auction (i.e. – after the inevitable overspending on some of the big names thrown out early, but before the final stages, when teams seek to spend all of their remaining funds).
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